I haven't checked that in awhile...so if you rank 1/2/3/4/5 programs you have (roughly) 69/80/84/91/93 percent chance of matching. That's probably roughly congruous to the rank program people tend to match at (ie. ~70% match their #1, 80% top 2, etc.). The issue with that is that I think this graph is based on contiguous ranks, no? That would make me think that the people that are on the left side of this graph are either applicants that struggled, underapplied (or what have you) which more than likely decreases their odds of matching relative to the pack of average applicants. That would mean that the chances of your average applicant matching their 1/2/3... program would be higher than this graph indicates.
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Number of good programs needed to match well
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