Most successful MD/PhD matriculants do not have a scientific manuscript when they are been invited for interviews, but they have had significant research experiences. By the time of matriculation, quite a few of those research projects are in peer-review or already published, so that by the time MD/PhD students hit their PhD years, many (maybe 30-50%) have been co-authors in scientific research. A manuscript is evidence of significant research experience, but many students, particularly those who come directly from undergrad into the MD/PhD program do not have a published manuscript. Admission Committees are more concerned with the quality and quantity (time not number) of research experiences; a manuscript helps but it is not expected or required in the majority of circumstances.
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how important is a paper before applying?